19 May 2026

For Immediate Release

CILTHK Supports Hong Kong’s Second High-Speed Rail Line and High-Speed Rail Station in the Northern Metropolis

Abstract

The Hong Kong Section of the Guangzhou–Shenzhen–Hong Kong Express Rail Link (XRL) has become a critical component of cross-boundary passenger mobility between Hong Kong and the Chinese Mainland. Post-pandemic recovery, structural changes in travel behaviour, rapid growth in weekend and holiday demand, and the expansion of China’s national high-speed rail (HSR) network are collectively placing increasing pressure on Hong Kong West Kowloon Station. Using recent cross-boundary passenger data, capacity assumptions released by port authorities, and regional benchmarking within the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), this paper demonstrates that Hong Kong’s single HSR terminal faces medium- to long-term capacity saturation risks. The paper argues for the timely planning of a second high-speed rail line and station in the Northern Metropolis, proposes strategic planning principles, and highlights opportunities to connect Hong Kong to the national coastal HSR corridor under the “Eight Vertical and Eight Horizontal” framework. Early study and corridor reservation are essential to safeguard long-term transport capacity and support the Northern Metropolis as a new growth engine.

Development of the Hong Kong Section of the XRL

The Hong Kong Section of the Guangzhou–Shenzhen–Hong Kong Express Rail Link commenced operation on 23 September 2018, marking Hong Kong’s first direct integration into the Chinese Mainland high-speed rail network. Since then, service coverage has expanded steadily. Following full adoption of electronic ticketing after the pandemic and the introduction of overnight sleeper services in June 2024, the XRL has fully replaced the traditional intercity through-train services. By 2025, Hong Kong West Kowloon Station provided direct connections to around 110 high-speed rail stations across the Chinese Mainland.

Passenger demand has recovered rapidly after the reopening of boundaries. In 2025, the average daily passenger volume at Hong Kong West Kowloon Station reached approximately 85,000, representing a 17% increase compared with 2024[1]. Demand is highly peaked: average weekend and public holiday patronage reached about 103,000 passengers per day, up 15% year-on-year. On peak days, such as 4 April 2026, daily passenger throughput surged to around 149,000. Notably, Mainland residents accounted for approximately 49% of total usage on that day, making West Kowloon the only land boundary control point where Mainland residents outnumber Hong Kong residents.

Cross-Boundary Land Control Points and Travel Trends

Hong Kong currently operates 15 immigration control points. Eight of these are Hong Kong–Shenzhen land control points, while the remaining facilities serve aviation, waterborne transport, freight, or other cross-boundary purposes. Two historical control points have been closed.

Cross-boundary travel between Hong Kong and Shenzhen has demonstrated sustained long-term growth since 1999, reflecting progressive policy relaxation, completion of new boundary facilities, and continuous improvements in transport infrastructure. In 2025, the average daily passenger volume at Hong Kong–Shenzhen land control points reached about 690,000, nearly three times the 1999 level and 14% higher than in 2024. This figure also exceeded the pre-pandemic peak recorded in 2018.

Survey and open-data evidence indicate a structural shift in demand composition. Prior to the pandemic, growth was driven mainly by Hong Kong residents residing in the Chinese Mainland and visitors travelling to Hong Kong. Post-pandemic recovery shows a rising proportion of Hong Kong residents undertaking cross-boundary trips, suggesting a deepening of daily and leisure mobility across the boundary.

Weekend and Holiday Peak Characteristics

Cross-boundary demand exhibits pronounced peaking on weekends and public holidays. In 2025, the average weekday cross-boundary volume at Hong Kong–Shenzhen land control points was approximately 610,000, while weekend and public holiday volumes averaged around 840,000—nearly 40% higher. On 16 August 2025, total cross-boundary trips reached approximately 1.03 million in a single day.

User composition also varies by day type. In 2025, Hong Kong residents accounted for about 74% of cross-boundary trips, Mainland residents for around 24%, and other visitors for roughly 2%. These peaks place disproportionate stress on fixed boundary infrastructure and highlight the strategic importance of high-capacity rail-based crossings, particularly the XRL.

Capacity Saturation Risk at Hong Kong West Kowloon Station

According to information released by the Shenzhen Port Office, the designed daily customs clearance capacity of Hong Kong West Kowloon Station is approximately 200,000 passengers. Capacity assessment in this study focuses on average daily passenger volumes on weekends and public holidays, when demand is most critical.

Three demand growth scenarios are considered:

• Optimistic scenario, assuming continuation of the 2025 weekend and holiday growth rate of about 15.1%. Under this scenario, average daily passenger volumes during peak periods could exceed 200,000 as early as around 2030.
• General scenario, assuming half of the 2025 growth rate (around 7.5%). Capacity saturation would occur in the mid-2030s.
• Conservative scenario, based on the long-term average growth rate observed between 1999 and 2018 (around 5.1%), indicating saturation toward the late 2030s.

Even under conservative assumptions, the Hong Kong West Kowloon Station is expected to approach its design capacity within the planning horizon of major rail infrastructure. Given that the XRL required approximately 11 years from feasibility study completion in 2007 to opening in 2018, studies for a second high-speed rail station would need to be completed no later than the late 2020s to avoid future capacity shortfalls.

Regional Benchmarking: Station Density and Population Growth

Regional comparison highlights Hong Kong’s relative under-provision of high-speed rail stations. Shenzhen, with a permanent population of about 17.99 million at the end of 2024, currently operates five high-speed rail stations, with three additional stations under construction. Hong Kong, with a population of approximately 7.53 million, relies on a single HSR terminal at West Kowloon.

Population growth will further intensify intercity demand. The Greater Bay Area population is projected to approach 100 million by 2030. Shenzhen’s population is expected to increase by about 6% by 2035, while Hong Kong’s population is forecast to grow by around 9% by 2046. Continuous population growth across the region, coupled with deepening functional integration, will sustain demand for high-speed, long-distance passenger rail.

6. Strategic Opportunity: The Ningbo–Guangzhou Coastal High-Speed Rail Corridor

China’s national high-speed rail framework, structured around the “Eight Vertical and Eight Horizontal” corridors, provides a strategic context for Hong Kong’s next phase of rail development. The Ningbo–Guangzhou coastal high-speed rail corridor is particularly relevant. Several sections—such as Guangzhou–Shanwei, Shanwei–Shantou South, and Zhangzhou–Fuzhou South—are already operational, with other segments under construction or planning.

It is recommended that Hong Kong initiates a study on developing a second high-speed rail line and station in the Northern Metropolis to interface with this important coastal corridor. Such a connection would link the Greater Bay Area with the Western Taiwan Straits Economic Zone and the Yangtze River Delta, enhancing Hong Kong’s strategic role within the national network and reinforcing regional economic integration.

Potential Location and Planning Principles

The second high-speed rail station should be fully integrated with Hong Kong’s planned railway network. From a planning perspective, the station should be located near a major interchange serving multiple rail lines as identified in the future railway blueprint. Potential areas include Hung Shui Kiu, Kam Tin, Kwu Tung, and Fanling.

Key planning principles include:

• Direct interchange with existing and planned railways, including the Northern Link, East Rail Line, and future cross-boundary lines.
• Early reservation of high-speed rail corridors to minimise future land acquisition costs and construction disruption.
• Integration of station planning with land use optimisation to unlock development value and support innovation, employment, and residential growth in the Northern Metropolis.

The Way Forward

There remains scope to refine the Northern Metropolis development framework. A dedicated study on the second high-speed rail station and line should be initiated as soon as possible. Land use zoning around the proposed station should be reviewed in parallel, with adjustments informed by preliminary alignment and station location findings. Reserving high-speed rail corridors at an early stage will reduce long-term costs, enhance planning certainty, and support phased development.

Conclusion

Evidence from cross-boundary passenger trends, peak demand characteristics, capacity forecasting, and regional benchmarking demonstrates that Hong Kong’s reliance on a single high-speed rail station is increasingly unsustainable. Planning for a second high-speed rail line and station in the Northern Metropolis is both necessary and time critical. Proactive integration with national high-speed rail corridors will strengthen Hong Kong’s connectivity, support the Northern Metropolis as a new metropolitan growth pole, and secure Hong Kong’s long-term position within the Greater Bay Area and the national transport system.

 About The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport in Hong Kong

The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport in Hong Kong (CILTHK) is a major branch of The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (CILT). The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (www.ciltinternational.org) is an organisation with an established international pedigree with over 30,000 members working in over 100 countries. It was formed in the United Kingdom in 1919 and granted a Royal Chartered in 1926.

CILTHK (www.cilt.org.hk) was set up in 1968 and is one of the CILT global chapters. CILT is presented worldwide and we all share the common cause to promote and advance the art and science of supply chain, logistics and transport. Currently, the membership of CILTHK is around 2,000 and broadly ranges from experienced senior managers to junior staff in the industries of shipping, logistics, airline, railway, road, public transport, government, educational institutes and consultancy. The Institute regularly organises professional programmes and activities for members, such as seminars, forums, conferences, technical visits; formulates and implements professional codes to ensure and uphold the professional standards in the industry.

Further Enquiry

Please feel free to contact 2866-6336 or by email at info@cilt.org.hk for any areas of our suggestions that we can amplify further.

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2026年5月19日

新聞稿

香港運輸物流學會建議香港在北部都會區興建第二條高速鐵路線及高速鐵路車站

摘要

廣深港高速鐵路（高鐵）香港段已成為連接香港與內地跨境旅客流動的關鍵交通基建。隨着疫情後出行全面復甦、旅遊及通勤行為出現結構性轉變、週末及假日出行需求快速增長，以及國家高速鐵路網絡持續擴展，香港西九龍高鐵站正面對日益加劇的容量壓力。

本研究綜合近期跨境客運數據、口岸管理部門公布的通關設計容量，以及粵港澳大灣區內的區域對比分析，指出香港僅依賴單一高速鐵路總站，於中長期面臨容量飽和風險。文件建議及早規劃於北部都會區興建第二條高速鐵路線及高速鐵路車站，並提出相關的策略性規劃原則，同時探討把香港接入國家「八縱八橫」高鐵網絡中沿海高速鐵路走廊的發展機遇。及早展開研究及預留走廊，對保障香港長遠交通容量，以及支持北部都會區成為新的經濟增長引擎，尤為關鍵。

廣深港高速鐵路香港段的發展

廣深港高速鐵路香港段於2018年9月23日正式通車，標誌着香港首次直接接入國家高速鐵路網絡。其後服務範圍持續擴展。疫情後全面採用電子車票系統，並於2024年6月引入高鐵臥鋪列車服務，高鐵已全面取代傳統城際直通列車服務。

至2025年，香港西九龍站已提供往來內地約110個高鐵站的直達服務。

跨境客運需求在通關重開後迅速回升。2025年，西九龍站的平均每日客量約為85,000人次，較2024年上升約17%[2]。需求高度集中於週末及公眾假期，平均每日約103,000人次，按年上升約15%。在個別高峰日（如2026年4月4日），每日客流量更高達約149,000人次。值得留意的是，該日內地居民佔總客量約49%，使西九龍站成為唯一一個內地居民使用量高於香港居民的陸路管制站。

陸路過境口岸及出行趨勢

目前香港共設有15個入境管制站，其中8個為港深陸路口岸，其餘包括航空、水路、貨運及其他用途的管制設施，另有兩個歷史口岸已停止運作。

自1999年以來，香港與深圳之間的跨境出行量持續錄得長期增長，反映政策逐步放寬、新口岸設施落成，以及交通基建不斷改善的成效。2025年，港深陸路口岸的平均每日客量約為690,000人次，接近1999年的3倍，並較2024年上升約14%，同時亦超越2018年疫情前高峰水平。

調查及公開數據顯示，跨境需求的組成結構亦出現轉變。疫情前的增長主要來自居於內地的香港居民及訪港旅客；疫情後的復甦則顯示香港居民跨境出行比例上升，反映日常生活及休閒層面的跨境流動進一步加深。

週末及假日高峰特性

跨境出行於週末及公眾假期呈現明顯高峰。2025年，港深陸路口岸平日的平均每日客量約為610,000人次，而週末及假日則升至約840,000人次，高出近40%。在2025年8月16日，單日跨境人次更達約1,030,000。

使用者結構亦隨日期有所不同。2025年，香港居民約佔跨境出行的74%，內地居民約佔24%，其餘旅客約佔2%。這些高峰需求對固定口岸設施構成不成比例的壓力，亦凸顯高容量鐵路過境設施（尤其是高鐵）的重要性。

香港西九龍高鐵站的容量飽和風險

根據深圳口岸辦公室公布的資料，香港西九龍高鐵站的設計每日通關容量約為200,000人次。本研究以週末及公眾假期的平均每日客量作為評估重點，因相關時段的需求最為關鍵。

研究設定三個需求增長情景：

• 樂觀情景：假設延續2025年週末及假日約15.1%的增長率，西九龍站於約203-年已可能超越200,000人次的設計容量。
• 一般情景：假設增長率為2025年的一半（約7.5%），容量或於二零三零年代中期達至飽和。
• 保守情景：根據1999年至2018年的長期平均增長率（約5.1%），容量或於2030年代後期接近飽和。

即使在保守假設下，西九龍站亦預期會於大型鐵路基建的規劃年期內接近其設計上限。鑑於高鐵項目由2007年完成可行性研究至2018年通車，歷時約11年，第二個高速鐵路站的相關研究需不遲於2020年代後期完成，方能避免未來出現容量缺口。

區域比較：車站密度與人口增長

區域比較顯示，香港在高速鐵路車站配置方面相對不足。深圳於2024年底的常住人口約17,990,000，現時營運5個高鐵站，另有3個正在建設中。相比之下，人口約7,530,000的香港僅設一個高鐵總站。

人口增長將進一步推高城際需求。大灣區人口預計於2030年前後接近一億。深圳人口預期於2035年前增長約6%，而香港人口預測至2046年將上升約9%。區內人口持續增長及功能融合深化，將長期支持高速、長距離客運鐵路需求。

策略機遇：寧波－廣州沿海高速鐵路走廊

國家高速鐵路「八縱八橫」網絡為香港下一階段鐵路發展提供重要背景。其中，甬廣沿海高速鐵路走廊尤具相關性。多個路段（包括廣州－汕尾、汕尾－汕頭南、漳州－福州南）已投入運作，其餘路段正建設或規劃中。

建議香港研究於北部都會區興建第二條高速鐵路線及車站，與該沿海走廊對接，從而把大灣區連接至海西經濟區及長三角地區，進一步提升香港於國家高鐵網絡中的策略地位，並加強區域經濟融合。

潛在選址及規劃原則

第二個高速鐵路站應與香港未來鐵路網絡全面整合，並選址於具備多線轉乘潛力的主要交通樞紐附近。潛在地點包括洪水橋、錦田、古洞及粉嶺一帶。

主要規劃原則包括：

• 與現有及規劃中的鐵路（包括北環線、東鐵線及未來跨境鐵路）直接轉乘；
• 及早預留高速鐵路走廊，以減低日後收地成本及工程干擾；
• 結合車站發展與土地用途優化，釋放發展潛力，支援北部都會區的創科、就業及居住增長。

推展方向

北部都會區發展框架仍具進一步完善空間，建議盡快啟動第二高速鐵路線及車站的專項研究，並同步檢視相關土地用途分區。及早預留高鐵走廊可有效降低長遠成本，提升規劃確定性，並有利於分期推展。

結論

綜合跨境客運趨勢、假日高峰特性、容量推算及區域比較，顯示香港長期依賴單一高速鐵路站並不可持續。於北部都會區規劃第二條高速鐵路線及車站屬必要且具時間迫切性。主動與國家高速鐵路走廊整合，將可鞏固香港的對外聯通、支援北部都會區成為新的都會增長極，並確保香港於大灣區及全國交通體系中的長遠地位。

香港運輸物流學會簡介

香港運輸物流學會 (CILTHK) 是國際運輸物流學會一個主要分會，而國際運輸物流學會 (CILT)（網址：https://www.ciltinternational.org）是一國際性的非牟利專業組織，現時超過 30 個分會，全球超過 30,000 名會員，遍布 100 多個國家及地區。學會於 1919 年在英國成立， 並於 1926 年獲頒皇家特許狀。

香港運輸物流學會則於 1968 年成立。學會成立宗旨是推廣及提升供應鏈、 物流以及運輸等各範疇的藝術和科學。學會涵蓋多個不同行業，包括海陸 空的客運和貨運。現時香港學會由約 2,000 名會員組成，當中包括資深行政人員、政府公務員、公私營機構及顧問公司的專業人士。學會定期為會員舉辦專業認可培訓及專業活動，例如研討會、論壇、大型會議、參觀活動及持續專業發展計劃；並制定及推行專業守則，確保並維護業內的專業水平。

進一步查詢

如需進一步瞭解我們的建議，請致電 2866-6336 或發送電郵至 info@cilt.org.hk 與本會聯繫。